Nepal has undergone a significant demographic transition, with fertility rates declining dramatically over the past few decades. This shift has altered the country’s population structure and has been influenced by a variety of socioeconomic and cultural factors.
Declining Fertility Rate
Nepal’s total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime—has dropped from nearly 6 children per woman in the 1960s to around 2 children per woman today. This decline has been rapid and consistent, pushing the country close to the replacement level fertility (the TFR needed for a population to replace itself, which is approximately 2.1).
This decline has been driven by several key factors:
- Increased Female Education: A strong correlation exists between a woman’s educational level and the number of children she has. Women with more education tend to marry later, have better knowledge of family planning methods, and desire smaller families. The TFR among women with no education is significantly higher than for those with more than a secondary education.
- Rising Age at First Marriage: The median age at first marriage for women has increased, delaying the onset of childbearing and contributing to a lower overall fertility rate.
- Wider Access to Family Planning: The availability and use of modern contraceptive methods have expanded, allowing couples to better control the timing and number of their births.
- Urbanization and Socioeconomic Changes: As more people move to urban areas, they are exposed to different lifestyles and economic pressures. Raising children in cities can be more expensive, and urban residents often have access to better healthcare and education, which further reduces the desire for large families.
- Reduced Infant and Child Mortality: Improvements in public health, including vaccinations and better nutrition, have significantly lowered the number of children who die before reaching adulthood. This has reduced the need for families to have many children to ensure some survive, a common practice in high-mortality environments.
Population Patterns and Structure
The changes in fertility have had a profound impact on Nepal’s population pyramid and overall demographic structure.
- Slowing Population Growth: With the TFR nearing the replacement level, the annual population growth rate has been steadily declining. While the population is still growing due to demographic momentum (the population continues to grow for a while even after fertility drops, because there is a large number of people in the childbearing age group), the rate of increase is slowing down.
- Changing Age Structure: Nepal’s population is shifting from a young, broad-based pyramid to one that is becoming more rectangular. While still having a relatively young population, the proportion of people in the under-15 age group is shrinking, while the working-age population (15-64) is expanding. This presents a potential demographic dividend, where a larger portion of the population is in the productive workforce, which can boost economic growth.
- Internal and International Migration: A significant pattern in Nepal is the high rate of international migration, primarily for labor. Many young men, and increasingly women, migrate abroad, mainly to Gulf countries and Malaysia. This leads to a substantial absentee population and a change in household dynamics, with remittances becoming a key source of income. Internally, there is a trend of people migrating from rural, mountainous regions to urban centers and the Terai plains in search of better economic opportunities and services.
- Regional Disparities: Fertility and population patterns vary across different regions and socioeconomic groups. Fertility rates are generally higher in rural areas, especially in the Terai and Mountain regions, compared to the more developed and urbanized Hill and Himalayan regions. These differences are linked to variations in education, access to healthcare, and cultural norms. The province of Gandaki, for example, has one of the lowest TFRs, while Madhesh Province has one of the highest.
