1.31 Sources of Demographic Data
Demographic data in Nepal is primarily gathered through three key mechanisms: the decennial Census, various Surveys, and the Vital Registration System.
- Census: The periodic National Population and Housing Census (NPHC), conducted roughly every ten years (most recently in 2021), is the main source. It provides a detailed snapshot of the population’s size, distribution, composition (age, sex, ethnicity, religion, language), and socio-economic characteristics at a specific point in time.
- Surveys: Demographic sample surveys, such as the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), are conducted between censuses. They provide cross-sectional data and are instrumental in estimating demographic indicators like fertility, mortality, and migration rates, often with more specialized information than the general census.
- Vital Registration (VR): This system, though still in its formative stages in Nepal, aims to continuously record vital events (live births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and migration). Unlike the periodic census and surveys, VR provides a continuous flow of data necessary for studying population dynamics and real-time population change.
- Service Statistics and Institutional Records: Data from government ministries (e.g., Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education) and other institutions (like records on international migration from the Department of Foreign Employment) also contribute to demographic knowledge, particularly concerning specific sectors or population segments.
1.32 Population Size and Growth Rate of Nepal
Based on the NPHC 2021 and subsequent projections:
| Demographic Indicator | NPHC 2021 Value | 2024 Projection (Approx.) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population | 29,164,578 | 30,264,969 | Increasing, but growth is slowing. |
| Annual Growth Rate (2011–2021) | 0.92% | Projected at -0.15% (2024) | Dramatic decrease and projected negative growth due to high out-migration. |
| Sex Ratio (Males per 100 Females) | 95.59 | Approx. 91.23 | Declining, indicating a deficit of males in the country, largely due to male labor migration. |
The annual population growth rate has seen a notable decline, dropping sharply from a historical high of over 2% in the 1970s and 80s to 0.92% in the 2011–2021 decade. Projections for 2024 even suggest a negative growth rate, driven primarily by the high rate of net out-migration.
1.33 Geographical Population Distribution and Population Density
Nepal’s population distribution is highly uneven, concentrating in the Terai region (southern plains) and the Kathmandu Valley. The national population density according to the 2021 Census is 198 persons per square kilometer.
| Province | Population (2021) | Percentage of Total Population | Density (People/km²) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madhesh Province | 6,114,600 | 20.97% | 633 (Highest Density) |
| Bagmati Province | 6,116,866 | 20.97% | 301 |
| Karnali Province | 1,694,889 | 5.81% | 56 (Lowest Density) |
| Total (All Provinces) | 29,164,578 | 100% | 198 |
Trends and Patterns:
- Urbanization: There is a strong trend of migration from rural areas and the mountain/hill regions towards the urban centers, particularly the Kathmandu Valley (in Bagmati Province) and the fertile, easily accessible Terai region.
- Density Contrast: The highest densities are found in the Terai and the mid-hill valleys, especially the Kathmandu, while the mountainous and Himalayan regions, like Karnali Province, have very sparse populations due to rugged geography.
1.34 Age and Sex Composition of Population
The age and sex structure of Nepal’s population is changing, driven by declining fertility and high international out-migration of working-age males.
- Age Structure (2023 Approx.):
- 0–14 years (Dependent Youth): $\approx 27.2\%$
- 15–64 years (Working Age): $\approx 66.8\%$ (A large proportion, indicating a potential demographic dividend)
- 65+ years (Dependent Elderly): $\approx 6.0\%$
The median age is relatively young but rising, projected at 25.3 years for 2025.
- Sex Composition: The sex ratio for the total population (95.59 males per 100 females in 2021) signifies a feminization of the population within the country due to large-scale international labor migration of males. The population structure is often represented by a Population Pyramid. [attachment_0](attachment)
Demographic Dividend: Nepal is currently experiencing a “youth bulge,” with a large proportion of its population in the working-age bracket (15-64 years). This offers a window of opportunity, or “demographic dividend,” for accelerated economic growth if this large workforce is employed productively.
1.35 Ethnicity, Language, and Religion of Nepal
Nepal is a diverse multi-ethnic, multilingual, and multi-religious country. The NPHC 2021 recorded 142 distinct caste/ethnic groups, 124 mother tongues, and 10 different religions.
Ethnicity (Top Groups – NPHC 2021)
| Rank | Caste/Ethnic Group | Percentage of Total Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chhetri | 16.4% |
| 2 | Bahun-Hill (Brahmin) | 11.3% |
| 3 | Magar | 6.9% |
| 4 | Tharu | 6.2% |
| 5 | Tamang | 5.6% |
Language (Top Mother Tongues – NPHC 2021)
| Rank | Mother Tongue | Percentage of Total Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nepali | 44.9% |
| 2 | Maithili | 11.0% |
| 3 | Bhojpuri | 6.2% |
| 4 | Tharu | 5.9% |
| 5 | Tamang | 4.9% |
Religion (Top Groups – NPHC 2021)
| Rank | Religion | Percentage of Total Population |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hinduism | 81.2% |
| 2 | Buddhism | 8.2% |
| 3 | Islam | 5.1% |
| 4 | Kirat | 3.2% |
| 5 | Christianity | 1.8% |
The cultural and linguistic diversity is significant, though Hinduism remains the predominant religion. The proportion of the population practicing Hinduism saw a minor decrease from 81.3% in 2011 to 81.2% in 2021, while Christianity saw an increase from 1.4% to 1.8% during the same period.
